Soccer Mom's 2016
<div><b><span style="font-size:18px;">IOWA I </span></b><span style="font-size:18px;">Lunch-pail Catholics</span></div><div><br></div><div><span style="font-size:16px;">Catholics tend to vote Democratic, but Trump’s powerful pitch to blue-collar America—and his convenient shift this election season to an anti-abortion stance—could put working-class Catholics into play in places like Davenport, Cedar Rapids and Dubuque. One catch: His gloomy economic message might not click in a state where unemployment has been running more than a point below the already low national average this year.</span></div>
<div><b><span style="font-size:18px;">FLORIDA I </span></b><span style="font-size:18px;">Cuban millennials</span></div><div><br></div><div><span style="font-size:16px;">The long fight against Fidel Castro’s revolution put their grandparents in the GOP camp for life. But young Cuban-Americans aren’t reliable Republican votes anymore: With only hand-me-down resentments about the island, they’re actually excited about President Obama’s move to end the creaky embargo. A charismatic next-gen Republican like Marco Rubio might have had a shot at keeping them in the fold, but with Trump’s off-key bombast about immigration and race this year, it’s Clinton’s crowd to lose.</span></div>
<div><b><span style="font-size:18px;">MICHIGAN I </span></b><span style="font-size:18px;">My-Grandpa-Was-a-Reagan-Democrat Suburbanites </span></div><div><br></div><div><span style="font-size:16px;">Can Trump revive the Reagan Democrat? Socially conservative whites in suburban Detroit counties like Macomb and Oakland once pulled the lever for Ronald Reagan. If Trump wants to turn the state red for the first time since 1988, his trade and immigration views will need to win over a new cohort of “Trump Democrats”: working-class voters in manufacturing, construction and transportation. He’ll need enough to offset a big African-American population that leans toward Clinton.</span></div>
<div><b><span style="font-size:18px;">NEW HAMPSHIRE I </span></b><span style="font-size:18px;">Out-of-Towners and Up-and-Comers</span></div><div><br></div><div><span style="font-size:16px;">Republicans have more registered voters here, but the Granite State went blue in the past three presidential races. Now the vote could hinge on the huge chunk of residents—30 percent—who were too young to vote in 2008 or didn’t live in the state. They’re pretty split between the two parties, with more than 20 percent refusing to declare an allegiance. Newcomers here tend to lean libertarian, drawn by the lack of state income or sales taxes.</span></div>
<div><b><span style="font-size:18px;">NORTH CAROLINA: </span></b><span style="font-size:18px;">The Halfbacks</span></div><div><br></div><div><span style="font-size:16px;">North Carolina has a unique species of snowbird: northerners who retire to Florida, can’t take the humidity and settle somewhere cooler and farther north (hence, “halfbacks”). Democrats believe these elderly voters are some of their best targets in a state whose government has lurched right. Obama phone-bankers here were once told to listen for the trace of a Southern accent; if there wasn’t one, they knew they could have a live catch. </span></div><div><br></div>
<div><b><span style="font-size:18px;">PENNSYLVANIA I </span></b><span style="font-size:18px;">Farm Country Suburbanites</span></div><div><br></div><div><span style="font-size:16px;">If there’s a county that could turn Pennsylvania red for the first time since 1988, it’s Bucks, outside Philadelphia. Many of its suburban voters are well- paid and well-educated, but it’s overwhelmingly white, with a blue-collar population, too. One good sign for Trump: He did better than expected there in the GOP primary, winning about 5,000 more votes than Clinton did in the Democratic primary.</span></div>
<div><b><span style="font-size:18px;">VIRGINIA I </span></b><span style="font-size:18px;">Skittish Soldiers, Sailors &amp; Battleship Makers</span></div><div><br></div><div><span style="font-size:16px;">The military has long leaned Republican. But Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy and nice words for Vladimir Putin—compared with Clinton’s relatively hawkish State Department record—could rattle active-duty and military retirees in places like Virginia Beach, Newport News and Norfolk. Then again, Clinton isn’t the obvious choice for voters worried about the rise of Islamic extremists.</span></div>
<div><b><span style="font-size:18px;">WISCONSIN I </span></b><span style="font-size:18px;"># NeverTrump Radioheads </span></div><div><br></div><div><span style="font-size:16px;">Wisconsin’s powerful Republican establishment would normally be great news for a GOP candidate. One problem for Trump: The state’s two biggest-turnout counties, Milwaukee and Waukesha, overwhelmingly rejected him in the GOP primary, delivering him a rare loss. The high-turnout area is home to some of conservative talk radio’s leading voices in the “never Trump” movement, whom he’ll need to win over if he wants to make the state competitive.</span></div>
<div><b><span style="font-size:18px;">OHIO I </span></b><span style="font-size:18px;">Coal Miners’ Daughters (And Sons)</span></div><div><br></div><div><span style="font-size:16px;">Ohio’s coal country went heavily for Mitt Romney in 2012—he won 18 of the 20 coal-producing counties in the state’s mostly white south and east. Fossil fuel production has only declined since then, so look for Trump to play up his skepticism toward clean energy and global warming here. On the other hand, Obama won the state in 2012, and Clinton could get a boost from Ted Strickland, the Democratic Senate candidate and former governor, who is from southern Ohio. </span></div><div><br></div>
<div><b><span style="font-size:18px;">NEVADA: </span></b><span style="font-size:18px;">White Women of Vegas</span></div><div><br></div><div><span style="font-size:16px;">Hillary Clinton can bank on strong support from African-American and Latino women in Nevada, and Donald Trump can bank on white men. So the white women’s vote is crucial. They’ve been trending toward Republicans in recent elections. But the aura of misogyny around Trump—plus Clinton’s historic candidacy and support for issues like paid leave, education and abortion rights—helps put these women in swing territory.</span></div>
<div><b><span style="font-size:18px;">COLORADO I The Newly Mortgageds</span></b></div><div><br></div><div><span style="font-size:16px;">One group up for grabs is new homebuyers in Arapahoe and Jefferson counties, fast-growing suburbsoutside Denver, where a typical house sells for about $330,000. These include young families looking for affordable schools and health care, where Democratic policies might appeal, while also trying to pay mortgages, which opens them up to Republican arguments for lower taxes. </span></div>

This site uses cookies to deliver our services. By using our site, you acknowledge that you have read and understand our Terms of Service and Cookie Policy. Your use of ThingLink's Products and Services, is subject to these policies and terms.